Ford Taps Cloud-Based Prediction Market hosted by Inkling

From, Ford, CNN, General Mills, Cisco all trialing prediction markets …

“Ford Taps Cloud-Based Prediction Market

The cloud-based system from Inkling helps Ford Motor decide which new ideas are worth pursuing. Would you like an in-car vacuum?

February 21, 2011
By David Needle: More stories by this author:

Ford Motor Company’s stock price on the New York Stock Exchange has almost doubled in the past year, but that’s not the only stock market the company has interest in. The car maker is also tapping a cloud-based prediction market system to get a better handle on which new ideas to pursue.

The simulated stock market, being used by more than 1,300 Ford (NYSE: F) employees in the United States and Europe, encourages members to comment on various topics and issues through stock market-like trading. Ford is using a cloud-based collaborative prediction platform offered by Inkling, which has a number of other blue-chip clients in its stable, including CNN, Cisco, General Mills and Johnson & Johnson.”

These are more examples that Cdling is part of a larger trend.

Hurlos: Prediction Markets for Hurricanes

A friend sent me a link to this post at

“Prediction markets for hurricanes

For those of you who are interested in prediction markets and/or natural hazards, an experimental prediction market this currently being run on hurricanes, where the proceeds are going to the Red Cross–up to $15k if they can get enough people to join, plus 3 people are randomly selected to receive $1000.

The market centers on predicting U.S. hurricane landfall locations for this season, and  earnings depend on one’s skill in forecasting where this season’s hurricanes will strike the U.S. gulf and Atlantic coasts. The experiment is being run by a private company (Weather Risk Solutions), who have designed the market as a potential means by which coastal homeowners might someday be able to hedge against hurricane losses.  It is currently being  run as an academic experiment, and hope to share any of the trading data with academics who might have an interest (email me if you are interested).

If you are interested, visit the site:, where they will set you up with $5000 in play money.  They will donate $5 to the Red Cross for the first 3,000 people who participate, and at the end of the season randomly pick 3 people to receive a $1,000 cash prize (in real money).”

I think this is another example of how my proposal to apply prediction markets to seed stage investment decision making, is logical and part of a large and established ecosystem of companies that are part of the crowdsourcing landscape.

Best Buy Prediction Market

Built to Fade: zero is the new black

Perhaps, if you are motivated, we will create something meaningful together?

For about 19 months I have been wondering how and what to think about John Dumbrille’s ChangeThis Manifesto entitled, Built To Fade: The Advent of the Biodegradable Brand.

It is highly recommended reading for:

– everyone in marketing or corporate leadership,

– political leaders and advisers,

– anyone who is part of the environmental movement, or,

– everyone remotely interested in thriving in the new economic model.

IMHO, John didn’t really need to invite Naomi Klein’s No Logo or Seth Godin’s quip that “zero is the new black” into his manifesto.  He is a former Greenpeace activist and has chosen to live his life on Bowen Island.  Go there.  I don’t think Bowen is formally part of the Gulf Islands, but you can consider it a gateway to beginning your journey into a part of the world where the Celestine Prophesy can seem a lot more believable than the Invisible Hand. I have not met John but I trust that he lives his philosophy.  As he points out, it is his immediate reality that gives him unquestionable credibility. (Now try to achieve that effect with your toothpaste and you will get where this is going.)

I find Built to Fade so challenging to consider because John has brought into focus the essential conundrum of traditional broadcast branding.  He notes, “The success of conventional branding has been measured by the persistence of the literal and graphic associations that it forges.”  While John is specific in alerting us to the cynicism that green branding can quickly give away to, how can any communicator or marketer walk away unscathed when John points out that “The diversion of attention into a me-brand-good pseudo experience, the holy grail of brand building, is actually part of the problem.”?

space junk

By calling out the roots of Green brand building as a flawed experiment, Dumbrille relegates the entire traditional brand establishment to the status of space junk.

John hits his readers intimately – right in the morning coffee …

“When green brands manage to nurture egocentric self-cherishing among its users through packaging and advertising, a fundamental, environmental disjoin has taken place.  Huddled with my coffee, whether it’s fair trade certified or otherwise, I am indulged in an intimate branded moment. I rise above the pedestrian concerns of the depressed, middle-aged woman as she walks past the café. Later, I take a sip of my organic chai latte, place it in the drink holder and accelerate through a busy intersection. My “green” brand consciousness is anything but that. The phenomenon of being wrapped up in a brand idea is displacing my attention and connection to the environment that surrounds me right now.” (strike outs added by me)

Jeepers John!  Don’t wake me up while I am enjoying my coffee for chrisssake!  Do you want to start a riot?

Even remedial memetic branding can not pass the inspection …

“Mass media is in decline, and with it, conventional branding that pays the bills. For brand builders, a line of response has been to line Internet corridors with viral gadgets. These gadgets are intended to encourage people to assemble a memorable, and hopefully positive, image of the brand. Examples include sponsored YouTube videos and camouflaged blogs and comments. But, as we get better at filtering and as alternative, less commercial media abound, these hacks become serious irritants and the brand is often correctly implicated in the negative experience.”

The new marketing koan: How do you brand zero?

I dunno …

But at the risk of looking like a hijacked ant waiting for a fluke (see this Dan Dennett Ted Talk for the inside joke), let me throw out some fodder for you to respond to.

My first thought is the simple hope that Less is More.

Here is an example: Just last week I was turned on to this global fundraiser for autism through a tweet by Andrew Jenkins. Click through on the links to catch the 1 min vid if you want the full description.  In this case, the approach has a special meaning but perhaps the thesis of the campaign needs broader application?  Supporters were asked to practice a communication shutdown.  The idea is that attention to the cause would be raised through the absence on Twitter, Facebook and other communication channels of the participants or by their notes announcing such.  Okay – I think it works on this campaign.

UPDATE: Andrew Jenkins just brought another “going silent” option from the NYT to our attention.

Built to Fade?

Simple Green & Green Works (by Clorox) side by side

I asked John for an example of the new “alternatives—products with straightforward labeling and claims that don’t present an image designed to eclipse immediate reality.  He suggested that I take a look at  For a moment I felt elated.  I checked under my sink and low and behold, I had a me-brand-good experience!

This is was immediately surpassed, as John warns, by a feeling of trust lost and confusion when I discovered a similarly labeled product right next to my Simple Green made by the familiar CPG giant Clorox.  How can Clorox satisfy my need to be socially conscience with my cleaning products?  Aren’t they the same folks who have been selling me bleach and Ajax and SOS pads all these years?  Loreal just bought the Body Shop again right there in front of my eyes.

Maybe Clorox is a leader in delivering authentically green products?  Maybe Wal-Mart is on the right track?  Maybe Dove & the Body Shop are doing great things?  The point here is that fundamental disconnect that John predicts is not only sitting right under my sink, I bet every marketer out there understands that nagging gap that has emerged between consumers and even our best intentions to meet their higher order demands.

As I look around my house which was built in about 1919, I am reminded of the simple Shaker influence that was present in the original design and our efforts to maintain that consistency when we renovated before moving in. Much to my surprise, according to Wikipedia, the Shaker movement only attracted over 20,000 converts and even at its peak the group reached a maximum size of about 6,000.  Actually, I am really just reminded of that Dan Dennett vid about dangerous memes because he talks about the Shakers in it for a minute and half (from 9:00 to 10:30).  Feel free to take the time to listen to him.  Dennett concludes that the meme for Shakerdom was essentially a sterilizing parasite that ultimately led to the Shakers’ extinction.  Part of the creed of Shakerdom is that everyone should be celibate.

Making less noise than the irresponsible or keeping it simple out of principal can seem like a risky long term strategy.

Perhaps John is pushing us to consider brands that are more like waves than permanent things?  I know this post is too long already but I dare you to stick with it and follow that link to Richard Dawkin’s related Ted Talk.  The money quote comes at the 10:50 mark when Dawkins highlights Steve Grand’s observation that, “matter flows from place to place and momentarily comes together to be you” … or a brand????  As a new, twitter connection and self described transhumanist Zachary Moser pointed out, “It is interesting to see such a fundamental materialist (Dawkins) speak with such mystical overtones.”

Does the materialist answer John’s call for a new marketing koan?

It is not that far fetched.

Check out the New YorkTimes Magazine coverage of social product development platform Or consider the possibilities of employing a prediction market to manage innovation? Or Dell’s idea storm.

UPDATE, Dec. 1, 2010: Or check out Calgary’s Chaordix and their great Crowdsourcing: Who’s Doing It? list.

Do you want to tap growth?

Do you want to tap growth?

With these kinds of model’s the sustainable value of the enterprise is derived through the networks that it is able to mobilize for a purpose.  Altruism can be an essential strategy, completely aligned with the corporate motive of growing margins and profits.

Maybe these kinds of enterprises are by nature smaller?  But then again why so?  They operate more virtually and can have a more just-in-time model for talent, capital, materials and geography.  In any event, when facing the imperatives of emerging China, India and the rest of the developing world, are you really interested in prolonging the game of mass?

As we come to understand that traditional brand is less accountable for our corporate valuations, I think we are going to need a way to manage and compare these new corporate assets of social capital laden networks.

Incentive to contribute unevenly distributed information

cdling: what’s the next big thing

I have been continuing to have conversations around this idea of using a prediction market to assist in seed stage investment decisions.

What's the next big thing?

I just read this post by Fred Wilson, one of New York’s hottest VCs.  It looks like they are exploring the predictive power of crowd sourcing and platforms for harvesting this insight.

USV is in the midst of raising a new fund.  It’s their third.  They have been pointed to as a model for new sized venture capital, raising relatively smaller funds.  Investing smaller amounts, etc.   Now there is speculation that they will raise a much bigger fund and if this breaks their more intimate, boutique model.  Whether they do a bigger fund or not is another issue.  In any event, Fred and his partners are bumping into the same problem of scale described below.  I.e. how to keep your finger on the pulse of more than 25 companies?

UPDATE, Jan. 29, 2011: Yuri Milner and Ron Conway’s SV Angel give us more evidence of the trend towards investors doing more, smaller deals with their commitment to lend all 40 2011 Y Combinator companies $150,000 in convertible debt. With no cap and no discount.   Like investors everywhere, Y Combinator and SV Angel need to make choices about which companies to fund much earlier and then they need better ways to track bigger portfolios full of higher risk companies.  In this case, 40 this year and if they stay the course, 80 next year and so on …

Ron & SV Angel have already invested in more than 228 companies since 2005!

UPDATE, Feb. 4, 2011: Jason Calacanis has a good round up of reaction to Milner & Conway’s announcement in “Here’s What Insiders Have to Say …”

At the end of the day, the execution may not conform exactly to a prediction market model but I am still advocating that we explore employing collective intelligence to make better bets on seed stage companies and to monitor their progress.

Crowdsourcing.  Smaller start up costs.  Trends toward integration of social analytics and predictive models.

Why can’t we lead on these fronts from Canada?

Prediction markets have been applied successfully in many ways. Most famously in horse racing (though these are strictly speaking not prediction markets) but more recently to everything from politics to Hollywood box offices. And of course there are many corporations using them internally like Best Buy, HP, Motorola, most recently announced Ford and others.

There are a few problems and opportunities in the venture capital market that make me believe that it could use a shot of innovation, particularly locally.

1. VCs complain about a lack of quality deal flow, i.e. companies that have successfully past the seed stage of development and are ready for a $5-15 million venture round.

2. Start ups are essential to the success of the local venture capitalist but they can not find seed investors.

3. Tech start up and investing sometimes suffers because it is subject to the influence of small, tightly bound networks of people and this can make it difficult to identify, embrace and take risks on game changing innovations.

4. Recent changes in tax law make it a lot easier for US VCs to invest in Canadian companies.  This creates a couple of problems for these US VCs. We represent 10% of the North America market.  The opening up of opportunities here calls for a re-balancing of large investment portfolios to increase exposure to Canada. How then do US VCs develop, screen and manage deals?  Set up an office in Canada or some other resource intensive method like a partnership? Perhaps collaborating in a seed fund that employs collective intelligence offers an attractive alternative approach (cheaper, faster, better results?).

5. In general, it costs a lot less money to start up a potentially game changing web or mobile business than a few years ago. Micro-VCs have emerged, with some success, to take advantage of this.  They have small funds ($10-20 million) and make high touch investments in more than a dozen companies. How do you scale this?  How does a $50 or $100-million fund make investment decisions and manage more than 25 companies?  Actually, big funds like Andreessen Horowitz are also running into these issues and exploring new methods to cope.

6. While we often think that these problems are unique to Toronto, many places have the same dynamics due to the structure of innovation and the venture capital investment model.  If a venture investing model could be developed that only led to 2 out of 10 deals being very successful rather than the current anticipated rate of 1 in 10, it would change everything.  Prediction markets have proven to be accurate when used properly.  For example, Google has been using them internally for more than five years.

So I am putting my money where my mouth is.  I have incorporated Cdling Capital Services Inc. and we are:

  • Working to determine exactly how a prediction market or alternative collective intelligence model can be applied to assist decision making and monitoring of seed stage companies.
  • Working with Redesign, Inc., Peter Jones’ firm to develop the concept and UI.  Peter is Faculty at OCADU’s Master’s in Design, Strategic Futures and Innovation program and he has been able to help me introduce some great minds to this effort.
  • Working with Dr. Wendy Cukier, Associate Dean (Academic) of the Ted Rogers School of Management, Ryerson University (updated May 15, 2011 – Dr. Cukier has been appointed VP, Research and Innovation for all of Ryerson University, congratulations!) and co-investigator Dr. Charles Davis, Edward S. Rogers Sr. Research Chair in Media Management & Entrepreneurship, also with TRSM@Ryerson. Together we have scoped a study to map the Ontario Cross-Border Technology Innovation Ecosystem (OCTIE).  Details on that are available at the OCTIE Study Blog.
  • Working with DFAIT. Cdling has been invited into the Canadian Accelerator Program, established by the Canadian Trade Service and the Canadian Canadian Consulate General of San Francisco and Palo Alto.
  • Working with some great Advisors, like Olav Sorenson who teaches venture capital at the Yale School of Management and has studied extensively the relationship between networks, distance investing and venture success.

I am convinced that there is better way.  I have arrived at this point of view through a series of related experiences.  For example, designing the market (i.e. the valuable IP, in my opinion) would require many of the considerations that we routinely employed while I was VP of where we delivered a platform for providing crowd sourced marketing research through a six figure subscription model for companies like Best Buy, Gateway and Johnson & Johnson.

Though not necessary for the model to work, if we could establish a real money prediction market for these purposes in Ontario, it could be the analytical equivalent of permitting stem cell research while our neighbors choose polarization of opinion versus methods to embrace complexity.

Behavioural Economic Look at Altruism

Thanks to Gunther Sonnenfeld for bringing this video to our attention:

We are more like waves than permanent things …

Oh, oh …

At many levels I wish this had not happened. I remembered seeing something interesting in this Richard Dawkins’ video a few months ago and have finally had time to take a closer look & listen to it.

The interesting bit was the invitation from Steve Grand shared by Dawkins, to consider what we are. Now I have to try to comprehend the mind of Steve Grand. Pass the nuts.

If you don’t have enough time for the whole 20 minutes (all highly recommended), pick it up at 8:49 mark until you hear the words, “if that doesn’t make the hair stand up on the back of your neck then read it again, because it is important”.

Another interesting bit can be picked up at the 19:53 mark … “in short” to “millions of deluded people” … an interesting observation on why we personify things or in other words, brand them.

Dawkins observes we are social beings, swimming through connections with people. We have therefore highly evolved models for simulating the world that we need to navigate based upon social signals, so we end up applying that successful model to inanimate objects, personifying them even while being aware that this is the wrong model to solve our problem. For example, when we swear at a broken down car or dare I say the words … “BP”.

Seedling Prediction Market: Conversation with John Delaney, CEO, Intrade and Russ Thomson, Meritology

Any time that I can find anyone who can bat the ball around, I continue to wonder about the idea of establishing a prediction market to seed early stage innovation in Ontario and Canada.

With their permission, I am publishing below an exchange that I had with John Delaney, CEO of prediction market platform Intrade and Russ Cameron Thomson the founder of Meritology who blogs at Value Made Visible.

I know that this will be very difficult for anyone to wade through unless someone is really interested in the possibilities but at this stage I can not justify the time to edit.

I am still trying to determine if the basic idea works or is theoretically flawed.


From: michael at socialcapitalvalueadd dot com
To: russell thomas at meritology dot com
Subject: An Innovation-Seedling Prediction Market (in conversation with John Delaney)
Date: Tue, 13 Apr 2010 23:30:13 -0400

Thanks Russell for leading me down the learning curve.  I will check out the readings.

Let me share some additional thoughts (indicated by MC>>) below to continue the conversation with you and/or others …

FR: russell thomas
Date: Tue, 13 Apr 2010 11:11:51 -0700


I think it’s a promising idea, but runs the risk of being a “beauty contest”, because the award of seed capital is predicated on having the highest value in the prediction market, which is could easily become self-fulfilling. This would be a serious theoretical flaw.

MC>> Mitigating the “beauty contest” risk is one of the motives for using the pm in this context.  Small market venture capital suffers from “beauty” blinders.  They are closed social networks with few perspectives on “beauty” (where beauty is a metaphor for high potential businesses).  The idea is to create a pm that broadens the input on what is “beautiful”.  Perhaps we design & promote the market to ensure that the majority of the players are internationally based – Hong Kong, New York, Silicon Valley, Boston, London, etc.

I also wonder how your prediction market is different from a minority equity share or option in each company, from an incentive point of view.

MC>> The pm would not be linked to equity in the start up company.  Early stage companies do not have enough liquidity to open up the networks that can participate.  As a meta-market, the pm could be open to the social networks of companies (who have insight into the qualities of the company) as well as international participants who may not know the company as well, but have better information about the prospects for next rounds of finance, potential partners/channels, global competition and demand where it counts (the US, Europe, Asia – big markets).

Hmm ..  let’s say the option unit price is set at a level that would discourage and/or make obvious gaming.  If the unit price was $1, wouldn’t it be pretty obvious if a few related players were buying to boost a company? Once that was reported wouldn’t the rest of the market turn against this prospect?  The $500K is not a windfall.  There will still be rigorous investment terms and demanding investors to satisfy.  If everyone knows that $500K will be invested in the highest potential company every month, why not just improve the company until it is the best in the pool or enter another company?

I would also be concerned about the information available regarding each start-up.  If it’s just the “elevator pitch” plus founder biographies, then the market would favor “star power” over less flashy teams that might be more viable and sold.  To counter this, it would be very desirable to have information provided by the social network connected directly to each start-up, rather than just the start-up itself.  Part of this social network should be early customers, partners, and suppliers.

MC>> Again, being attracted to “star power” is another problem with shallow venture capital pools in small markets that we would like to overcome with a pm.  Better, broader, more informed perspective on who has “star power” and why, is exactly what we are after. The idea is to bring global perspective to balance local connections to scarce seed stage capital.  While there would be standard “listing” requirements, the companies would be free to become as transparent about their activities as they would like and to develop expertise in developing globally respected businesses that they communicate effectively in global terms, rather than the language of local government grants or a few early stage investors who have money due to vested interests.

Finally, venture capital-oriented start-ups must evolve and learn as they progress through the venture process.  Some VCs say that the #1 success factor is the ability to rapidly learn and adapt, even if that means discarding the original product or market plans.  Thus, your prediction market is really trying to evaluate each start-up’s ability to learn and adapt.  This is very hard to evaluate solely as outcomes (i.e. years to profitability, years to IPO or liquidity event).

MC>> I agree that early stage companies must be agile, evolve and learn, even if that means dramatic changes to the business plan.  I will check out the links that you have shared below.  I think the pm would account for this by placing higher value on the people behind the companies (founders, employees, partners, customers, etc) and favouring companies who have higher “margins of error” available to them.  By this, I do not only mean higher margin products, I also mean companies that have validated fast growing, global markets and some sort of uncompetitive advantage.

Instead, you might do much better to focus your prediction market on metrics relative to a process or lifecycle model.  I recommend the Bell-Mason diagnostic, as described in the book High Tech Ventures. <>    This will put *everyone’s* attention on what matters most: successfully progressing through each growth stage.  The prediction market could have questions like this:

*       Successfully completes Bell-Mason Stage 2 in 12 months or less, *and* $50K or less

This has the great advantage that it represents near-term accomplishment, not far-off outcomes.  They can also be assessed objectively by experienced executives or VCs.  (The Bell-Mason diagnostic stages and evaluation rules would need to be modified for “e-Ventures”, e.g. social networks platforms, etc.)

In fact, you could set up a combinatorial prediction market for each of the 12 dimensions of the Bell-Mason diagnostic. (For more on combinatorial prediction markets, see: .)  This could be very powerful from an information discovery viewpoint, because it would reveal conditional dependency between various factors at each stage of development.   (This raises a very interesting valuation challenge, which would take you into options theory because the incremental value of each stage is the option of participating in future stages.  Your PM doesn’t need to explicitly include such models, but maybe PM participants would!)

MC>> I took a quick look at the slides.  Thanks!  I will also check out the other link.  I hope others will also feel free to suggest additional readings.

Lastly, I’m not such a fan of “winner take all” contests.  You mention that one winner will receive $500K.  I think it would be better to have a diversified payoff schedule, including some awards to “Honorable Mention” companies and also special categories – solo entrepreneur, college student team, and so on.  For the “winner”, you could have a matching fund where angel investors could participate as a pool.  After all, being the winner should make the start-up attractive to regular angel investors.

MC>> The “winner” in each instance gets a $500K investment subject to standard due diligence and terms.  But the market would be permanent so any listed company would stay on the market, eligible for the next month.  Part of the rational is to illustrate for solo entrepreneurs, college student teams and the like the kind of conditions they must meet to be attractive seed investments.  Angel investors would be welcome to compete with the Fund.  They would have to get organised to get the best deals.  The pm would impact their perspectives – hopefully broadening their notions of “beauty” and “star power”.

Hope this helps,

MC>> It does help.  I hope that this conversation continues.



From: Michael Cayley
Sent: Tuesday, April 13, 2010 9:14 AM
To: John Delaney
Subject: An Innovation-Seedling Prediction Market (in conversation with John Delaney)

Thanks John – I am taking your advice and sharing our thread with the PM google group.

First & foremost, I am wondering if you or anyone else can see any theoretical flaw in the basic idea? (see details below)

Do you & everyone else in the group agree that the idea could work if implemented properly?

Is getting “unequivocal” settlement of the market mostly a function of achieving critical mass?  Can anyone point me to reading or give me a sense of “how many of the right participants” we would need in this market to eventually be confident in funding at least one start up per month?

If we require incentives to achieve the critical mass how would we estimate how much?  Are we talking about something feasible?

At this point, I am most interested in comments/insights that either validate or invalidate the basic idea.

I expect that doing it right will beg many questions and thoughtful solutions.


Subject: The Al Jazeera Network Dedicates a Full Show to Prediction Markets
Date: Tue, 13 Apr 2010 12:29:10 +0100
From: john delaney at intrade dot com
To: michael at socialcapitalvalueadd dot com

Hi Michael,

Thanks for posting the show on your blog.

Here are a few quick comments.

Your questions are very interesting and I know other service providers and prediction market aficionados will have additional comments.

If there was some asset to incentivize people to predict on a set of markets it would certainly help participation. Perhaps some portion of the seed stage capital could be dedicated to motivating those who are predicting it would be very helpful. I believe that the contributors to the fund would love to get significant crowd wisdom on the investment prospects.

However settlement of these markets could take quiet a long time until the result became unequivocal.

Perhaps a way to approach the best questions to ask is to have those contributing the seed fund to define them. Perhaps the questions would then include.

1.      The company to be operating profitable within X years
2.      The company to be generating sales of Y in A years
3.      The company to have a monetization event of $Z or more within B years.

Feel free to post your mail and my reply on the PM group.

Best regards,


From: Michael Cayley
Sent: Monday, April 12, 2010 4:39 PM
To: John Delaney
Subject: The Al Jazeera Network Dedicates a Full Show to Prediction Markets

Thank you for sharing that John.

I have embedded the video in my blog <>  where I have introduced the idea of using a prediction market to spread a globally oriented innovation meme in Ontario and/or Canada <> .

I would be grateful if you or a member of your team might share some of your thinking of the possibilities of employing a prediction market in the way that I have described.

Let’s say that a fund is put together and that will award $500K in seed stage capital to a promising start up on a constant, reliable basis – perhaps every month, perhaps every 3 months … in any event, the funding date will be a known quantity.

Seed stage companies can then “list” themselves … I.e. share information about their prospects as a company.  A prediction market would be used to access the information available through the listing and all other sources and determine the probability of a company “achieving a $10-million venture capital round” or “achieving sales of $100-million” or “obtaining $500K in seed financing from the fund” or “going public on the NYSE” or …

I know the question is critical but don’t know what question would be appropriate.

On the “funding day” the company that is doing best on the prediction market will get the $500K seed funding, subject to final due diligence and standard investment terms.

The companies would be based in Ontario or Canada but the prediction market would be global and the backers of the fund would actively promote it to investors (venture capital, institutional, etc.) all over the world to assure critical mass and that the prediction market outcomes would be a function of local and global information.

Any thoughts?


Dr. Robin Hanson, Chief Scientist, Consensus Point & John Delaney, CEO of Intrade with Riz Khan on Al Jazeera

Very informative discussion with these leaders of prediction market thinking.

I continue to wonder if a prediction market could be used to help spread a globally oriented innovation meme in Ontario and/or Canada.